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The Ashes may offer a reason to cheer, but this series will also see the Australian team host more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the team was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Ageing Squad Fascination Builds

For a couple of years there has been mounting curiosity with the average age of this side and particularly the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player near a Test team being above thirty, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test team boasting a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

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Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the core four plus Boland have continued performing. Any team knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a group of similarly-timed departures, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a train that would indeed be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, forced upon this Aussie team in the span of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only miss the first Test, was the team management assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the team balance experiences a far greater shift with two players absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Test matches entering the attack after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories describe him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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Who knows, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is striking is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what further injuries the first Test may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and able to continue after that match, given how complicated stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a track record of getting injured early in series and a pattern of minor injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the series may witness the main four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might experience transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane option, but after that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this format is not the place for easing into one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the visiting team. You can hear that train approaching, coming around the bend, and the English team hasn't seen the success since they can't recall when.